Camarillo Observatory - Founded 1992

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Camarillo Observatory Plays Key Role In Dispelling Fears Of Possible Asteroid Impact With Earth In 2019

Critical Observations of 2002 NT₇  Results In Quick Elimination of Possible Earth Impacts

August 9, 2002

At nearly 18th magnitude, critical observations of minor planet 2002 NT₇, only 45 degrees from the nearly-full Moon, had been secured from Camarillo Observatory and reported to the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge Massachusetts.  These observations would soon help prove that there is no possibility of the asteroid impacting the Earth in the near future.  At the same time, however, a rumor of this very same asteroid impacting with the Earth on February 1, 2019 was already spreading, uncontrolled, around the globe. 

From the perspective of someone working in the Near-Earth Object (NEO) community, there was nothing particularly unusual about 2002 NT_7, except perhaps, its presumed 2 kilometer diameter.  It was a relatively new discovery which was not at risk of being lost (due principally to its size.)   A few CAA mouse clicks revealed that it would be visible through the end of September 2002, when it would be lost in the glare of the Sun for a few months.  It will again emerge in January 2003 and be visible for another 5 months – plenty of time to collect observations.  Although it appeared on the NASA and Near-Earth Objects Dynamic Site (NEODys) risk pages, this was not unusual either.  Newly discovered asteroids are regularly placed on these sites, only to be removed soon afterwards, as further observations are reported.

The observations from Camarillo Observatory were routine.  We are one of the few private observatories in the world who continue to observe near-Earth Asteroids throughout the month, regardless of the phase of the Moon.  In fact, 2002 NT₇ was one of 14 near-Earth Asteroids observed that night, including one other one found on the risk pages, 2002 NY₄₀.  When used to update the asteroid's orbit, the new Camarillo observations, combined with those from NASA's Near Earth Asteroid Tracking (NEAT) program, suggested that the possibility of an impact in 2019 was in fact getting smaller.

For the next several days, 2002 NT₇ was too close to the full Moon for anyone to obtain observations.  Subsequent observations were obtained on July 28 and July 29, from several observatories, including Camarillo.  The possibility of impacts in 2019 and 2060 were eliminated as a result of these observations.  With several more observations on July 30, the asteroid was completely removed from the NASA risk page and the “all clear” was sounded on August 1, 2002.  For those of us in the trenches, so to speak, the whole process was working as designed.  There was never anything to worry about.

Why then did the rumor of this “killer-asteroid” sweep the news media?  The answer is simply sensationalism.  The predicted end of the world has always been, and always will be, a newsworthy subject.  When a supposedly "Near-Earth Asteroid Expert" (who has never observed a single near-Earth Asteroid as far as we can determine) prematurely presents transient scientific data as evidence, then you have the public’s undivided attention.  “Space rock 'on collision course'" read one headline in the science section of an ostensibly legitimate news site.  The article went on to quote the expert as saying "This asteroid has now become the most threatening object in the short history of asteroid detection".  As would be expected, other news services picked up on this "scientific" story and it cascaded like a stack of tumbling dominoes around the world.  But once again, the dust has settled and the "all clear" has been sounded.  This will become another "false alarm" in the memories of the public, when it should have never been news to begin with.

The public has been unnecessarily scared.  You have undoubtedly seen or heard several frightening reports yourself.  We received many emails from adults and children around the world, regarding the situation with 2002 NT₇.  Here is one of them along with our response.

July 27, 2002 3:35 PM

I am a computer scientist and I have 2 young children and my wife is pregnant with our 3rd baby.

When I initially heard about Asteroid 2002 NT7 which is projected to hit the earth on February 1, 2019, I was worried.  Not for me, but that my children's life could end on or about their 18th birthday because of the Asteroid hitting the earth.

 I want to monitor the findings on the orbit of Asteroid 2002 NT7 on a daily basis to see if  the odds of impact are going up or down.

 Is there a good place for me to check on the internet?  Is there an Email list where concerned scientists share information on Asteroid 2002 NT7 as its orbit is refined as more observations come in?

William

July 27, 2002 7:28 PM

Dear William,
 
It is unfortunate that the press has once again caused unnecessary
fear in the public regarding a possible asteroid impact. The
likelihood of 2002 NT7 impacting the Earth in 2019, is just slightly
higher than a random one (background risk) striking us next week.
With another month's worth of observations, it will more than likely
be downgraded below the background risk.
 
There are two groups of professional astronomers who are monitoring
the situation on a daily basis. One is based in Italy
(http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?riskpage:0;main) and
the other at JPL (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/). I would recommend
that you monitor the graphic at the JPL site. The Italian site
contains numerical data that you need to be familiar with and have to
wade through.

As long as the JPL table indicates "green" or "white", there is
nothing to worry about. And don't worry that the list has not been
updated for several days. Currently, 2002 NT7 is positioned close to
the bright Moon and observations are not possible. So, ignore any
rumors you might hear of a government cover up. I should be getting
some additional observations from Camarillo in the next few days, so
we can both watch 2002 NT7 go from "green" to "white".

Regards, John

Should there ever be a time when public concern is warranted?  Absolutely!  When an object is discovered that demonstrates a trend of increasing impact risk along with increasing observations (spanned over several months), then we might have something that is newsworthy.  Until then, sleep easy!

In the meantime, I will continue to observe near-Earth Asteroids from Camarillo Observatory, and continue to make a case for the importance of tracking these asteroids.  When I explain this to someone and I see their eyes start to roll, and a small grin come across their face, I can chuckle myself and realize that my job has gotten a little tougher.

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